The Farce That is Alternative Energy (L-O-N-G)—2007 Redux

Solar, wind, ethanol, hybrid cars…none of them is going to be our savior when the oil music stops playing. You’re wondering why? Efficiency, that’s why--energy in vs. energy out.

To oil’s benefit, it took less energy to get for the energy it gave. Even at $40/barrel, it was the cheapest source of energy, with the most output, per barrel (or even BTU). Now that cheap source is destined to come to a thin trickle, if not a screeching halt. What do we have as replacements?

Solar panels, made from petroleum, only provide us with about 10% of our current energy needs, and we’d have to line I-5 in California with solar panels just to make 6 megawatts of power (the standard used in today’s electric generation plants)—the golden rule used to measure the electric needs of an average U.S. city. Six megawatts equals ONE power plant. It takes 12 solar panels working constantly just to run 1 refrigerator, and we don’t live in the land of the midnight sun.

Note: even the current off-the-grid guru Ed Begley Jr. says his rooftop-covered solar panels are no longer enough to supply his energy needs, and succumbs to sending money to a third party “green power source” for his additional energy needs. Al Gore even spends an additional and needless $600/month in guilt money to get his power from a green source. Is “conservation” in the cards for either of these households? Not on your life! It’s so much easier to spend money to assuage guilt—theirs and others.

To use wind energy, we’d have to cover hillsides and mountain ranges with windmills to get the equivalent of that magic 6 megawatts—13,000 turbines, spinning constantly at maximum speed, equal one 555 megawatt plant (enough to run an average sized state). Turbines are purported to cause all kinds of havoc with flying wildlife, particularly bats, because of the low noise they emit while spinning...and let’s not forget appearance. Cape Cod turned down a project proposal for an offshore wind farm earlier this year because residents feared that seascape aesthetics would be ruined. Heavens!

Ethanol is a laughable story in itself—it takes 27-29% more energy to produce a gallon of ethanol than the ethanol itself will provide. When the energy it takes to plant, maintain, and harvest the crop (corn or soy), then distill and refine it to a useable state, you’re already in the hole before you even turn the key in the ignition! All this serves is to help prop up our already over-producing farm community, namely Big Farm-a (Con Agra, Cargill, and Archer Daniels Midland). We’d never eat corn again, because all the crops would be going toward wasteful ethanol production—not only our crops, but also those of other countries who can least afford to lose food sources. When it comes to a driving fuel, ethanol provides 25% fewer miles/tank than ordinary gasoline. Biodiesel has a slightly better energy return, but only slightly—and still has the same energy problems of ethanol before the key is turned.

Note: one day, Leonardo DiCaprio and his buddies will get this through their thick skulls—probably AFTER they get booted out of Hollywood and can’t find work elsewhere. Also, on the corn front—we have to import sugar cane ethanol and ethanol crops because we can’t grow enough right here at home to supply our current needs…never mind the future.

Hydrogen is almost as big a joke, simply because the largest, cheapest source for it is the moon—when was the last time we made it there? We can’t even get our shuttles back into orbit, let alone send something to the moon again! Forget trying to crack water or air—too expensive, even at its cheapest.

Note: we DID manage to get a few shuttles back into orbit, but just barely. Still, we find ourselves woefully unequipped to take advantage of the cheapest hydrogen source of all.

Then we come to the most laughable crutch of all, the hybrid car. Yes, it may use less gas and yes, it may burn cleaner, but it, too is made from petroleum products (plastics and polycarbonates). Where will these cars come from when the fields run dry? It currently takes 27-54 barrels of oil to produce one hybrid vehicle. When oil reaches $72/barrel, as it’s been suggested to in late 2006, just who is going to be able to afford THE CAR, let alone the gas for it? Remember that the Toyota Prius was unreasonable at $17,000 back when oil was $44/barrel. Imagine what it would cost when oil reaches $72/barrel.

Note: the prices have come down, but so have the mileage estimates (by some 20%)—now they are slightly better than my ten-year-old Park Avenue. I gladly sacrifice 6 miles per gallon for the spaciousness, interior conveniences, and cheap cost of insurance. My original article on hybrid cars here.

At least solar, wind, and hydroelectric energy come from free sources to begin with, but we all know what that means: unreliability. It also means that harnessing the power isn’t without costs as well—solar panels (plastic), wind turbines (fiberglass), and dams (concrete) are expensive matters relative to the efficiency of energy they’d help provide. Couple this with power loss from line transmission (from the source to your house), and the costs escalate relative to efficiencies.

Did you know that electric power starts out at 440 volts from the source, and ends at 110 volts at your home? The lost power transmission along the way to your home (mostly in heat) is 330 volts, or 75% of the original energy generated. That’s how much extra energy is required to get power from the originating source, down the power grid, to the home, and that’s why we’d have to cover the country with windmills and solar panels to replace the oil, gas, and coal that now generate our power plants.

The real answer to the looming oil catastrophe is to use less, and by that I mean FIND OTHER MATERIALS TO MANUFACTURE FROM. Plastics manufacture is the worldwide #1 user of oil—not cars or driving (driving is the #1 user in the U.S.). Until we find something else to use or shun plastics altogether, we’re headed right toward the stalled oil derricks and disaster in record time. Simply using less on a personal level won’t make a dent in the situation—we need to find other ways of manufacturing and transport without the use of oil and distillates as a country, and as a world. Ending the extremely wasteful practice of fueling cruise ships, which get a whopping 3 gallons to the mile, would be a good start.

Note: new oil deposits are being discovered every day, so the once-dreaded oil crisis is being pushed back further out over the horizon. For every cry of “crisis,” we hear another cry of “Eureka!” afterward.

Natural gas, unfortunately, isn’t an answer either, because manufacturers will make the shift to gas first, assuring quick drainage of that supply as well. When that’s gone, then where will they go? This is where they need to be thinking about now rather than later.

Studies suggest that coal may be our manufacturing answer, and it might, but getting to an adequate coal supply will be easier said than done. We sit on the Saudi Arabia of coalfields--right under Colorado--and the residents aren’t about to let us come in and dig them up so life can go on as usual.

So by this point, you’re probably wondering how you’re going to get by when the pumps run dry, and the so-called “alternatives” aren’t being manufactured any more. My advice: power down. Simply put, try to pull the plug on as many of your appliances and vehicles as possible, and learn to live without their convenience. Electricity generation (like water and kerosene) will likely be rationed, and there will probably be times of light and brownouts (much like Iraq suffers from today). Making and doing more with less won’t be enough; you’ll need to think “make something from nothing.” Remember: nearly ALL the alternatives to oil come from oil itself in some form—plastics, polycarbonates, fuel for tractors, pesticides, fertilizers, etc. Fiberglass wind turbines may be the only exception, but they do require the use of petroleum products in maintenance (gear lube, hydraulic fluids, etc.)

Note: why wait? Start finding ways to power down NOW, saving money and hassle in the end, not to mention already being accustomed to the coming eventual limited energy availability and/or anticipated astronomical costs.

As comical as this may sound, we might want to get acquainted (or re-acquainted) with horseback and bicycle riding. We might also want to get re-acquainted with hurricane lamps, cooking with fire, and an in-depth knowledge of machinery so that we may convert it from gas and diesel to hydraulic and pneumatic power. Older Boy Scout manuals (pre-80’s) will come in handy for lessons in building shelters, fires, picking wild foods, and for general emergency preparedness (I say old because the newer manuals rely heavily on pre-packaged convenience items and manufactured camping gear--affordability may be an issue to some). Books on Amish and Mennonite living may provide useful reference.

We may also want to consider living in a dwelling that’s underground, or at least partly underground, for temperature modulation. Central heat and A/C will probably be things of the past, and many areas of this country will be totally unbearable to live in without them. Caves usually have an environment at a steady 50 degrees or so, depending on depth, and it’s a reliable year-round source of modulation. Underground homes can also have this same sort of modulation, albeit at a different temperature (usually 70 degrees or so).

In short, you’ll need to do more for yourself from home to avoid expensive travel and “frivolous” spending (frivolous becoming a relative term). This means everything from telecommuting and freelancing to gardening and sewing. Currently cheap Chinese goods will become dear when transportation costs are added in---theirs AND ours (never mind the re-valuating of their currency). The car as we know it will only serve as a hauling device, and today’s SUVs will become luxurious hauling devices indeed!

Note: in the future, public entitlement programs will most likely be paid for with tax hikes in the form of tariffs on once-cheap Chinese goods, and/or a VAT tax on Medicare. We may be discovering new oil nearly every day, but new sources of tax revenue are in short supply (and getting shorter) as jobs get downsized, off-shored, or eliminated altogether. Let’s face it—minimum-wage jobs don’t bring in the revenue that union-wage ones do.

On the national preparedness front, we’re looking at nuclear plants for electrical generation (and high time, too, since the technological advent of better waste disposal means through laser use), different materials for manufacture (more fiberglass and natural renewables), and mass transit improvements (fuel changes and infrastructure upgrades). Individual businesses are even getting into the act, and I bet you haven’t even noticed it yet—through eminent domain, they’re grabbing up suburban neighborhood property for building future stores in residential neighborhoods. Why, you ask? Simple—they see the coming trend toward less driving, and want to bring their stores to you, the new bike rider, walker, and mass transit rider. They know that trips to the mall and big-box stores will be vanishing, along with discretionary dollars to spend, and this is how they intend to stay in business. Malls will eventually dry up, along with suburbia, and the next logical move for them would be to acquire old derelict properties in downtown areas to demolish or refurbish into new stores. The new walker, bike rider, or mass transit user will surely find THAT accommodating (if only they could fit a big screen TV on a bus or on the back of a bicycle). Downtowns everywhere will get much-needed renovations and remodels to make room for the resurgence of permanent residents returning…the revival of “walkable” communities will be at hand. Imagine Target as a Mom & Pop store—a store without all the trappings of suburban comfort creatures, a store that only carries what you’d need to live in an urban setting. An urban Best Buy wouldn’t carry any electronics you couldn’t fit on a bus or carry away by yourself sans cart, making for a vastly smaller store. Wally World may even have to split into two stores—one for groceries, and one for general merchandise.

The next logical move for them after that would be to go all cyberspace. Then, the store overhead would be eliminated, and we could rely on (expensive) home delivery for that big-screen TV. Shipping costs would then soar to astronomical levels due to fuel and maintenance bills for USPS, UPS, and FedEx.

Note: this too will be pushed back because of the new oil deposits—but it may come to fruition in your great-grandchildren’s time (or later).

Just close your eyes and imagine all this. It will start happening when we stop resisting the idea that oil will come to an end. We need to be thinking about other living arrangements now before this event becomes a national and personal catastrophic disaster—a long emergency with no end. It may not happen in your lifetime, but there are undoubtedly little lifetimes behind you (kids), and they will need to be prepared and versed. This is where the experience, knowledge, and sage advice of grandparents and great-grandparents will come in handy. Valuable depression-era wit and wisdom will get along nicely here, and unfortunately, that generation is disappearing faster than we realize—yet another valuable commodity wastefully slipping through our fingers.

Note: Oil will not come to an end before individual countries start nationalizing their supply, choking off deliveries, raising prices, and therefore escalating the delivery costs to the states in the process (tankers need gas too!). Politics will be our undoing on the energy front long before we actually run out of oil.

Thank God we're already somewhat ahead of the curve by being frugal and thinking before buying.

Note: Thank God most of us are being frugal and thinking carefully before buying.