Wednesday, June 30, 2010

Cavalcade of Risk #108--The "Break in the Virginia Heat Wave" Edition

For the past week, it's been hot enough here to cook dinner on the sidewalk. As of today, we're getting a week of respite from the high-90's temps.

We're also getting a respite from the non-relevant submissions that keep pouring in. Whoever invented the DELETE button deserves a medal!

Okay--onward with our none-too-small yet relevant carnival:

HEALTH

The Contamination of Policy-Making by Presidential Marketing from Jaan Siderov and Disease Care Management Blog. He looks at our President’s liberal use of marketing to promote his health reform by using the term “Patient Bill of Rights”. That was never envisioned in the health reform legislation. Our Chief Executive keeps trying to sell us a bill of goods: the name may change but folks don’t seem to be buying it.

I'm certainly not buying it. Here's what I'm doing instead.

International Health Care Models: An Introduction from Jason Shafrin and Health Care Economist. He says "Find out how countries around the world provide health insurance to their citizens in this series of posts by the Healthcare Economist."

New ACGME Resident Work-Hour Policies from the Notwithstanding Blog. "The governing body for American medical post-graduate training has released new guidelines for resident work hours. They aim to strike a balance between the risks posed by under-rested and under-supervised residents now, and under-trained and under-experienced doctors in the future."

I included this because overworked medical residents posed risks to their own health as well as the patients they treated. While I'm not from the risk community, please let me know if this does not really count as risk, so future similar submissions will be dealt with adequately.


LIFE

Life Extending Habits from Super Saver at My Wealth Builder. "In this study, eliminating four risks increased lifespan by 12 years."

6 Money-Saving Tips When You Prepare For Your Life Insurance Exam from Susan Howe at The Budget Life Blog. "Preparing properly for your life insurance exam is important to qualify for the best life insurance rates. Here are six things you can do in order to prepare for your life insurance exam."

How Much Does Life Insurance Cost? from Christien at How Much Does Everything Cost Blog. From the article: "The price of life insurance holds opposing views depending on factors such as the insured’s age, health, and career. For instance, the premium for a 30-year-old, male, non-smoker in excellent health will be far less costly than a similar policy for a 70-year-old male smoker. In the same way, a bungee jumping employee would have to shell out much higher premiums for life insurance than would a secretary."

LEGAL (a new category for me)

Guardianship: A Critical Protection for Your Child from Kim Luu at Money and Risk Blog. "People plan many things to protect their children but tend to forget a basic thing, who to take care of their child."

Court Ponders Complexity in Measuring Loss from Tred Eyerly and Insurance Law Hawaii. From the article: "The ambiguity was construed in favor of the insureds, entitling them to a recovery of up to policy limits, or $105,600.

Nevertheless, there was still the issue of a possible double recovery. An unresolved question was whether the appropriate measure of the insureds' actual loss was the cost to rebuild or actual cash value. Only if the fact finder determined the insureds intended to reconstruct their home would loss be measured by the cost to rebuild."


Colorado Governor Ritter at Odds With Attorney General Suthers from Louise of Colorado Health Insurance Insider Blog. "The Attorneys General who are trying to block the mandate are arguing that it’s unconstitutional to require people to purchase a product against their will. But by that argument, isn’t is unconstitutional to require private health insurance companies to accept all applicants, regardless of medical history?"

Sometimes I wish we could erase the entire Health Care Reform right out of existence--it causes more harm than good, in my non-expert opinion.

Malpractice Defense: Fetal Descent Stalled, With Variable Decelerations from David Williams at Health Business Blog. This looked like a serious article, and not being from the insurance world OR the medical world, I easily understood it. I also understood why our health care costs are so high--unfounded lawsuits and doctors having to practice defensive medicine against people like this.

"A difficult labor and delivery ended with a baby that had brain hemorrhages early in life. In the ensuing lawsuit, the defendants persuaded the jury they had managed the risks appropriately." I'm glad all ended well.

AUTO

The 20 Least Expensive Cars to Insure in 2010 from Susan Howe and Insure.com Blog. It isn't always the car that makes the insurance expensive--the driver's habits and record (including credit) also factor in, as well as location and company chosen for the policy.

As far as cars go, the more doors, wheels, safety gear, and weight a vehicle has, the less it costs to insure. As for the DRIVER...

HOME

Do You Need a Home Warranty? from Ryan at Cash Money Life Blog. "You may need a home warranty, which can cover home maintenance repairs and costs for appliances, plumbing, air conditioning & heating units, more." To me, that's what the home inspection's all about--to find out the rough lifespan of the appliances and systems BEFORE making an offer on the house, and deducting any possible replacement costs from the asking price. From the article: "With standard policies ranging from $200-$600 per year, the cost is fairly affordable and can certainly save you considerable money in the event a major repair or replacement is covered." I'd think the savings from a lowered purchase offer would yield more (and keep cash in the bank account for such eventual replacements) than the cost of one of these policies. You'd gain interest on the money you AREN'T spending every year on the policy, and on the appliance/system replacements you DON'T have to make just yet.

If something turns up dicey in the home inspection, you can lower the purchase offer by the amount it would take to replace it, then plan on replacing it when the offer's accepted and you close the deal. The one-time cost of a home inspection prior to buying is about equal to one month's premium on a home warranty policy, and it may reveal the futility in buying this kind of policy.

FINANCIAL (no casino, gold, or scam posts)

5 Secrets of Wall St., Part V: Risk Management Isn't a Science from Carlos and ONNtv blog. "Risk management isn't an exact science, but that doesn't mean you should ignore it. A look at black swans, volatility, and managing risk."

INSURANCE IN GENERAL

Supplemental Insurance: What I Learned From an AFLAC Employee Interview from Nathan Richardson and Complex Search.com Blog. This insurance is also known as accidental death and dismemberment insurance (or AD&D--not to be confused with the fantasy role-playing game Dungeons & Dragons), and is usually cheap for the coverage. The trouble is you must have very specific losses for the policy to pay out, and even THOSE are subjective.

I believe (but may be wrong) this is why SSI (Social Security disability) and life insurance were invented. I'm interested in knowing if these policies pay out for a lifetime, or just a specific time (like 1 year).

The Seven Pillars of Financial Success, Pillar #6: Get Insured from Free Money Finance Blog. "Even the Bible details the benefits of owning insurance." Maybe God knows something we don't?

Insurance Broker vs. Buying A Policy Online: Which Option is Best? from Nathan Richardson and Complex Search.com Blog. From the article: "Tip--just because you start out shopping online does not mean that you have to finish in the same place. For instance, you can receive several quotes online from different providers and then contact an agent direct for more information."

BUSINESS AND INDUSTRY

Risk Management: Is Your Business Prepared? from Hank Stern and Insureblog. "Is your business *really* prepared for a disaster? InsureBlog reports on a little-known resource to help you plan for one."

Managing Risk in a Recession from Nancy Germond and All Business.com Blog. From the article: "Is your organization ready to lose up to 25 percent of its intellectual capital in the next few years? Add this flight to an average job stay of three-to-four years, and businesses in America are at risk. America is poised for an employment exodus so dramatic that many companies will find themselves unprepared."

It's hard for me to see an employment exodus when we have millions unemployed, but when you insert the terms "qualified" and "experienced", the picture changes dramatically. We're importing workers in boxcar lots NOW (via VISA programs) just to help keep the current science/math/high tech world pinned together--what happens when they aren't enough? Wages will certainly skyrocket for these fields, and benefits will probably become more generous than they were just five years ago.

On that profound note, I'll conclude my Cavalcade and send it on over to the Disease Management Care Blog.

How to Accept Credit Cards at Your Next Yard Sale

From Fox Business News. Groooooan...it's bad enough Mickey D's takes them!

"Garage sales have always been relatively low-tech affairs -- hand-labeled price stickers and an old cash box full of dollar bills are the usual tools of the trade. But if you want to sell a higher-priced item, such as a flat-screen TV or that barely used elliptical machine, the old-fashioned way might not be good enough anymore.

That's where credit cards come in. Because people tend to carry around more plastic than cash these days, it's worthwhile for garage sale proprietors to consider their options for taking credit cards. If you don't, you're limiting your audience to those who carry around a wad of cash, or perhaps risking getting ripped off by a bouncing personal check."


1. Paypal, ProPay, or other online payment site through a sale-site laptop

"The advantages of using online payment services are the ease of setup and use. Many of your garage sale patrons will already be familiar with sites like PayPal and may have accounts already set up. If not, they will still be able to use any major credit card on these sites. Most of these sites also allow you to e-mail a receipt to your buyers.

Of course, there's a cost that comes with using these services. Each site comes with its own fee system."


2. Square (for i-Phones)

"The latest technology available for credit card processing comes from Twitter creator Jack Dorsey. Square is a payment device that will allow you to turn your iPhone, iPad or iPod Touch into a credit card reader.

Download the free Square application for your device, set up an account and order your free card reader, which plugs into your audio input jack. The app allows your iPhone to process buyer signatures and verify your customers' identities through photos. Plus you'll have ability to e-mail receipts to your customers."

...

"In the event that they don't feel comfortable using your computer or iPhone to send you money, you can offer them the option of using their own. Many people carry their own smart phones and can send you money via PayPal or similar sites on the spot. Or they may wish to go home and send you the money from their own computer before picking up their purchase."


In my mind, if you don't have cash, you can't afford it.

Now the Talking Heads on TV are Discussing Depression

Not the mental kind, but the economic kind.

Rather than holler (once again) about the importance of a full pantry, a full bank account, and debt paid off, I'm going to offer other advice that may be just as helpful:

1. Meat Manifesto (about cheap sources of meat, alternative sources, and meat alternatives)

2. Rethinking Protein Sources (through baking)

3. Cheap Eating with Cost Per Serving

4. Filling Up with Fewer Calories and Less Food

5. Free Heat on the Street (part 1, 2, 3, and 4)

6. D-I-Y Health Care Reform (for staying well in tough times)

7. D-I-Y Economic Reform (for staying solvent in tough times)

8. Skipping Nickels and Dimes for Bigger Savings (updated and revised over the years)

9. Maximizing Your Income While Minimizing Your Taxes (updated through the years)

10. Comparing the Cost of Canned and Frozen Meats to Fresh

11. Calculating Meat Cost Per Serving

12. You're Walking on My Dinner (about foraging)

13. Frugal Emergency Preparedness

14. The Amish--Their Past and Present May Hold Our Future (about alternative technologies and doing without technology)

Tuesday, June 22, 2010

Back to the Kaiser's World

From Prudent Bear.

"The U.S. is unlikely ever to enjoy again its hegemony of 1990-2008. Its economy retains the flexibility that had made it so admired, but the burden of state spending has increased by over one-third since 2005 and taxation will inevitably rise in response. Most important, a decade and a half of ultra-low interest rates have de-capitalized the economy, not only leaving American savers without enough savings to finance their old age, but also leaving American business starved of capital for expansion, as ever-increasing percentages of the available finance pool head into the government deficit maw. Going forward, U.S. living standards will inevitably decline, while politically the likely result will be a retreat into isolationism and a refusal to get involved in the intractable problems of the international order. Even if the United States attempts to project its power under some new president, it will find financial constraints prevent it from doing so.

The international order has thus returned to the Kaiser's world of multiple states, high tariff barriers and unfair trade competition. Small countries will have no alternative but to seek protection in the spheres of influence of their larger neighbors. Participants in the protectionist new world order will be a diminished United States, a sclerotic and inward-looking EU, projecting its power no further than the Balkans, one or possibly two left-leaning Latin American blocs led by Brazil and Venezuela (which may or may not combine), a resource-rich and oppressive bloc led by Russia, a highly unstable Middle East dominated by Turkey and Iran, and an impoverished and unstable south Asian bloc led by India. By far the most powerful and successful bloc will be led by China, which will include much of south-east Asia and large parts of Africa. There will remain a few substantial independent states: an isolationist Japan, an unstable Indonesia, perhaps a modestly prosperous Australia. However overall the world will geopolitically look like that of the aggressively competitive 1890s or, if we are unlucky, the haunted 1930s.

And ironically enough, the new Kaiser Wilhelm II will be Chinese."


The new world order...if Obama gets his way. The only possible change to this plan would be if King George (Soros) becomes the new Kaiser--he brought down the pound sterling in Britain, forcing the Euro plan, and is doing his best to destroy the dollar here. If you haven't figured it out by now, Obama and his crew are Soros's puppets.

Friday, June 18, 2010

Has America Lost its Edge?

From MSN Money. Corporate woes, flat wages and high unemployment stoke fears that the US economy won't be able to keep up in the age of globalization. Here's why that assessment is wrong.

"He wants to get the word out: All's not gone wrong with America. He also knows globalization has negative connotations for many, grouped with words such as "outsourcing" and "downsizing" -- even though by many measures, the U.S. has not lost ground economically. Plus, Americans have benefited big time from cheap goods produced in emerging markets.

Sullivan believes U.S. export competitiveness should be considered from three viewpoints."


1. Specialization

"The takeaway here is the United States is improving in areas that have the highest profit margins while ceding lower-margin industries to cheap-labor countries like China. Contrary to popular belief, the U.S. still makes a lot of stuff other than the financial creations of Wall Street. Companies such as Paccar and Oshkosh continue to depend on their American factories. In fact, U.S. factories are now operating at more than 74% of capacity -- up from a low of 68% last year and returning to levels last seen in early 2008."

2. Market share

"...as of 2008, the United States retained top-three status in eight of the 14 categories. And we remained the world's breadbasket, retaining No. 1 status in fresh foods. (That's the most recent date for which numbers are available.)"

3. Export prices

"The idea here is that if the country is producing what others are demanding, and we're doing it better than places like China, then companies will be able to raise prices. This is a sign of strength."

...

"For the most part, the U.S. has been able to raise its prices in industries in which it competes."


Not just to foreign customers, either--it's happening to US as well. Every end product gets it's price raised.

"Overall, the data suggest that the U.S. economy is more than holding its own against its rivals. It is flexible, efficient and nimble.

So why are so many people so worried? Why aren't we raving wildly about the benefits of free trade and global competitiveness instead of protesting globalization in the streets?

It's because corporations have enjoyed the majority of the benefits, without much trickling down to workers or shareholders."


Productivity has risen faster than unit labor costs...well, that's going to change when the new health care law kicks in!

Prediction for 2050 (the World Economic Form's, not mine): "job creation is just over the horizon. And over the long term, a drop in global fertility rates and a global scarcity of labor will result in a reversal of fortunes for workers. It's simple supply and demand."

This I agree with--I just hope it doesn't take as long as 2050 to get here. I might be gone by then, and won't get to see it.