From CNN Money. Now the latest applicant screening tool seems to be the FICO score.
"Falling behind on your bills? It could cost you a job.
An increasing number of employers are using credit checks to screen potential job applicants. So missed payments on your mortgage, car or credit card could keep you from getting hired."
With good reason--if you can't handle finances at home, you aren't going to do well on the job, plus you're viewed as more likely to steal from your employer.
"The timing could not be worse.
"At exactly the time everyone's credit seems to be going down the toilet, more and more employers are using this," said Nat Lippert, research analyst for the union Unite Here. "You get in a Catch-22: You can't pay your bills because you don't have a job, and now you can't get a job because you can't pay your bills."
...
"Pratt says that a credit check gives employers details about accounts in collection, debt levels, bankruptcies and other problems that would cast doubt on someone's ability to handle responsibility. It does not report credit scores or account numbers.
Pratt also argues that the credit histories are only one factor considered by employers, and that prospective employees are supposed to be given the chance to respond to what their credit check turns up.
But consumer advocates and some job seekers say that candidates are being unfairly judged by the circumstances of their private lives.
"Employers have adopted this method as a proxy for character reference, believing it reflects on people's ability to handle responsibility," said Ben Woolsey, director of marketing and consumer research for CreditCards.com. "That's a bit of a reach."
Is it? If you've been frugal all along, you have nothing to worry about.
"James said that despite his credit problems, he was an honest worker and never stole a penny from the large deposits he was entrusted with.
Indeed, consumer advocates say the overwhelming majority of job applicants with credit problems don't steal from their employers and it's unfair for their credit situation to be held against them."
It shows who's been living beyond their means.
Thursday, July 22, 2010
Tuesday, July 20, 2010
Wednesday, July 14, 2010
Galveston vs. Social Security
From Martin Weiss Research.
"How they opted out is not nearly as interesting or controversial as the story of the Amish … they simply used an exemption that existed until 1983 and allowed municipal governments to form their own alternate retirement plans. In Galveston, the idea was put to a vote and won with 78 percent in favor of the decision."
...
"Like Social Security, participation in Galveston’s plan is mandatory for county workers. They contribute 6.13 percent of their gross compensation every year (slightly lower than Social Security’s current rate of 6.2 percent). Galveston County contributes a slightly larger amount to each participant’s account, and that amount has risen a bit over time.
Like Social Security, Galveston’s plan also offers both survivor and disability benefits. But that’s where the similarities end. Here’s a rundown of some of the differences (most of which come from this document from the Social Security Administration) …
To qualify for Social Security, workers must accumulate enough credits, which takes about 10 years in the workforce.
In contrast, Galveston County’s employees who work at least 20 hours a week are covered immediately (other employees are covered by Social Security)."
...
"Galveston offers its employees a number of choices for receiving benefits — including a lump sum distribution, as well as annuities ranging from five years of payments to distributions for life (with a minimum number of payments guaranteed).
In addition …
There is no “retirement age” with Galveston’s plan — workers can begin collecting their benefits upon retirement or termination.
Their benefits are not reduced if they continue working after they leave their county job.
And notably, Galveston’s plan doesn’t offer inflation adjustments … nor does it provide additional benefits to spouses or divorced spouses. Spouses may only receive benefits once the worker leaves his county position … and divorced spouses may only receive benefits if they’ve been designated as beneficiaries or by court decree."
...
"...a Galveston employee knows that some beneficiary is getting a benefit … Social Security only guarantees benefits to certain household members, and tends to reward larger households with greater numbers of young dependents."
...
"Galveston’s plan lets workers decide how they want their money.
Most importantly, it virtually guarantees that the money will be there because unlike Social Security it is fully funded in advance!"
I came up with an idea to just opt for Social Security OR an IRA, and have your Social Security deductions go into one or the other--NOT BOTH! You'd have to pick one or the other, and NO CHANGES! That way, those of us who opt for IRAs don't get their money raided by politicians, or by spouses and/or dependent children unless they are official beneficiaries. We can also control where the money's invested, and many times, can make more than the average 3% return that Social Security money makes invested in Treasury bonds.
One advantage of doing this: you can convert the IRA into a Roth account, and have your retirement money tax-free, while the Social Security recipients are stuck paying taxes on their money at retirement (they have to claim it as income).
Another advantage of doing this: if you put your IRA into a self-directed account (available through these firms--look up "self-directed IRA trustees"), your retirement money can be invested in a whole lot of things besides stocks and bonds, but not the illegal stuff (antiques, gold, silver, art, wines, collector cars, stamps, rugs, etc.) Many people go the self-directed route with real estate, putting rental real estate into their portfolios.
Should the tax code change for IRA accounts, and they lose their tax-deferred or tax-free status, things change drastically. Then, we're pretty much all looking for tax-advantaged mutual funds, triple tax-free munis, and triple tax-free zero coupon bonds. But even these can be a leg up over ho-hum Treasuries that can be raided at any time.
Then we have the S-T-R-E-T-C-H IRA program...Social Security doesn't have THAT!
"How they opted out is not nearly as interesting or controversial as the story of the Amish … they simply used an exemption that existed until 1983 and allowed municipal governments to form their own alternate retirement plans. In Galveston, the idea was put to a vote and won with 78 percent in favor of the decision."
...
"Like Social Security, participation in Galveston’s plan is mandatory for county workers. They contribute 6.13 percent of their gross compensation every year (slightly lower than Social Security’s current rate of 6.2 percent). Galveston County contributes a slightly larger amount to each participant’s account, and that amount has risen a bit over time.
Like Social Security, Galveston’s plan also offers both survivor and disability benefits. But that’s where the similarities end. Here’s a rundown of some of the differences (most of which come from this document from the Social Security Administration) …
To qualify for Social Security, workers must accumulate enough credits, which takes about 10 years in the workforce.
In contrast, Galveston County’s employees who work at least 20 hours a week are covered immediately (other employees are covered by Social Security)."
...
"Galveston offers its employees a number of choices for receiving benefits — including a lump sum distribution, as well as annuities ranging from five years of payments to distributions for life (with a minimum number of payments guaranteed).
In addition …
There is no “retirement age” with Galveston’s plan — workers can begin collecting their benefits upon retirement or termination.
Their benefits are not reduced if they continue working after they leave their county job.
And notably, Galveston’s plan doesn’t offer inflation adjustments … nor does it provide additional benefits to spouses or divorced spouses. Spouses may only receive benefits once the worker leaves his county position … and divorced spouses may only receive benefits if they’ve been designated as beneficiaries or by court decree."
...
"...a Galveston employee knows that some beneficiary is getting a benefit … Social Security only guarantees benefits to certain household members, and tends to reward larger households with greater numbers of young dependents."
...
"Galveston’s plan lets workers decide how they want their money.
Most importantly, it virtually guarantees that the money will be there because unlike Social Security it is fully funded in advance!"
I came up with an idea to just opt for Social Security OR an IRA, and have your Social Security deductions go into one or the other--NOT BOTH! You'd have to pick one or the other, and NO CHANGES! That way, those of us who opt for IRAs don't get their money raided by politicians, or by spouses and/or dependent children unless they are official beneficiaries. We can also control where the money's invested, and many times, can make more than the average 3% return that Social Security money makes invested in Treasury bonds.
One advantage of doing this: you can convert the IRA into a Roth account, and have your retirement money tax-free, while the Social Security recipients are stuck paying taxes on their money at retirement (they have to claim it as income).
Another advantage of doing this: if you put your IRA into a self-directed account (available through these firms--look up "self-directed IRA trustees"), your retirement money can be invested in a whole lot of things besides stocks and bonds, but not the illegal stuff (antiques, gold, silver, art, wines, collector cars, stamps, rugs, etc.) Many people go the self-directed route with real estate, putting rental real estate into their portfolios.
Should the tax code change for IRA accounts, and they lose their tax-deferred or tax-free status, things change drastically. Then, we're pretty much all looking for tax-advantaged mutual funds, triple tax-free munis, and triple tax-free zero coupon bonds. But even these can be a leg up over ho-hum Treasuries that can be raided at any time.
Then we have the S-T-R-E-T-C-H IRA program...Social Security doesn't have THAT!
Tuesday, July 13, 2010
England Revises Health Care System
From Fox Business News.
"The reorganisation of the world's largest public healthcare system will see family doctors take charge of the lion's share of a 110 billion pound ($165 billion) healthcare budget.
Losing out will be thousands of managers in the National Health Service (NHS) whose jobs will be cut to slash bureaucracy and save money."
...
"Health Secretary Andrew Lansley is concentrating on structural reforms he says will improve the outcomes for patients as well as saving money at a time of limited resources.
He wants patients to be able to use information about the quality of different hospitals and consultants to choose the treatment best for them.
More than 150 local health authorities in England, known as primary care trusts or PCTs will be scrapped, along with ten larger regional management bodies.
Much of the 80 billion pound budget currently spent by PCTs will devolve to family doctors or general practitioners (GPs), who will work in consortia to commission local health services, many previously handled by the scrapped authorities."
Oh how the mighty have fallen--first, Prince William and his girlfriend elope, saving the cost of a royal wedding, then the Queen's trip to New York is financed by Canada, and now this! This is a precursor to what will happen to us down the road, now that we have health care reform--all those layers of bureaucracy invented by Obama to get more of his cronies employed by the government will soon devolve into direct payment to doctors by making THEM manage the health care budget directly.
"The reorganisation of the world's largest public healthcare system will see family doctors take charge of the lion's share of a 110 billion pound ($165 billion) healthcare budget.
Losing out will be thousands of managers in the National Health Service (NHS) whose jobs will be cut to slash bureaucracy and save money."
...
"Health Secretary Andrew Lansley is concentrating on structural reforms he says will improve the outcomes for patients as well as saving money at a time of limited resources.
He wants patients to be able to use information about the quality of different hospitals and consultants to choose the treatment best for them.
More than 150 local health authorities in England, known as primary care trusts or PCTs will be scrapped, along with ten larger regional management bodies.
Much of the 80 billion pound budget currently spent by PCTs will devolve to family doctors or general practitioners (GPs), who will work in consortia to commission local health services, many previously handled by the scrapped authorities."
Oh how the mighty have fallen--first, Prince William and his girlfriend elope, saving the cost of a royal wedding, then the Queen's trip to New York is financed by Canada, and now this! This is a precursor to what will happen to us down the road, now that we have health care reform--all those layers of bureaucracy invented by Obama to get more of his cronies employed by the government will soon devolve into direct payment to doctors by making THEM manage the health care budget directly.
Wednesday, July 07, 2010
CA Congressman Pete Stark--A Man You Wouldn't Want to Run Into in a Dark Alley, a Bank Line, or Even a Mall
From Fox News. Video version.
Excerpt from yesterday's Glenn Beck show:
Pete Stark, like most Progressives, believes the more you have to show for your money (whether or not it's paid for), the more wealthy you are. In his mind, debt = worth. The more you owe, the more you're worth.
Is it any wonder CA is in so much trouble? The reason why you wouldn't want to run into this guy: you might break a sweat bludgeoning him to death with your wallet.
Now you know why the Road to Serfdom (otherwise known as Interstate 5) is paved with so many backward ideologues--they did their damndest to avoid those Consumer Math and Economics classes. Math and science baaaad, philosophy and art goooood. Anything that requires ONE RIGHT ANSWER is taboo in the Land of Liberal La--they're best at "subjectives." This is probably why ice skating and snow boarding are considered Olympic sports.
Excerpt from yesterday's Glenn Beck show:
"Take an imaginary neighborhood with "diverse" economic backgrounds:
Person One makes $250,000 a year. They owe $500,000 on a $520,000 mortgage, they financed a $20,000 boat, a sports car and a summer cottage on the lake as well. Life is sweet. They don't have a lot of savings — they'll do that later.
Person Two only makes $45,000 a year. But, they've paid off their mortgage, they bought used cars and have no payments. They've saved money for a rainy day.
Now, the way Congressman Stark sees it, the richest person on the block is the guy with the boat and the sports car. After all, he's got the nicest stuff and the biggest house. But, what happens if they both lose their jobs and have to take one of those jobs that Americans just won't do? Or what if their income is significantly cut back?
Well, when that rainy day comes, the richest person on the block is the person only making $45,000 a year. Why? Well, they don't have lots of stuff, but they don't owe anyone either. There's no bank or credit card company breathing down their necks if their income is slashed. Their life changes, of course, but not as much as the rich guy with all the financed stuff. He's got to scramble to sell the house, the boat, the car. When he can't, banks and credit card companies are coming after him. He could borrow more money to try and keep up, but what has that done? Made him wealthier or just more in debt? All it does is buy some time before it all comes crashing down.
It's the same with the federal government. If IRS returns drop and they continue to try and make up for the shortfall by printing more money or borrowing more money, we just fall deeper into debt.
We're not wealthier. We've only held off the inevitable."
Pete Stark, like most Progressives, believes the more you have to show for your money (whether or not it's paid for), the more wealthy you are. In his mind, debt = worth. The more you owe, the more you're worth.
Is it any wonder CA is in so much trouble? The reason why you wouldn't want to run into this guy: you might break a sweat bludgeoning him to death with your wallet.
Now you know why the Road to Serfdom (otherwise known as Interstate 5) is paved with so many backward ideologues--they did their damndest to avoid those Consumer Math and Economics classes. Math and science baaaad, philosophy and art goooood. Anything that requires ONE RIGHT ANSWER is taboo in the Land of Liberal La--they're best at "subjectives." This is probably why ice skating and snow boarding are considered Olympic sports.
Brazil--Where Credit Grows on Trees
From the Global Post.
"...Brazil, where even the poor can pull out the plastic to cart home flat-screen TVs, stereos and cappuccino machines.
Credit is not only bountiful but virtually free and democratic. It’s all thanks to interest-free payments — Brazil’s version of an installment plan. Only this plan allows consumers to buy their products in up to 17 installments or more on any credit card and without interest rates."
...
"Banks guarantee payment to stores and take on all the risk in case consumers miss a payment. Yet, stores, consumers and banks have a common understanding: missing a payment's due date will lead to painful interest rates, especially because Brazil's interest rates are among the highest in the world. And consumers recognize they're not always getting the best bang for their buck — stores often charge more for products sold under installment plans.
With customers eager to buy more products on credit, retailers want to make sure they keep their clients happy by stretching the installment plans as far as they can."
Let this be a warning to all potential Brazil investors--they will see the same kinds of trouble we're seeing now. Brazil is a bubble still forming, and I'd advise you to avoid getting caught in its Venus flytrap.
"...Brazil, where even the poor can pull out the plastic to cart home flat-screen TVs, stereos and cappuccino machines.
Credit is not only bountiful but virtually free and democratic. It’s all thanks to interest-free payments — Brazil’s version of an installment plan. Only this plan allows consumers to buy their products in up to 17 installments or more on any credit card and without interest rates."
...
"Banks guarantee payment to stores and take on all the risk in case consumers miss a payment. Yet, stores, consumers and banks have a common understanding: missing a payment's due date will lead to painful interest rates, especially because Brazil's interest rates are among the highest in the world. And consumers recognize they're not always getting the best bang for their buck — stores often charge more for products sold under installment plans.
With customers eager to buy more products on credit, retailers want to make sure they keep their clients happy by stretching the installment plans as far as they can."
Let this be a warning to all potential Brazil investors--they will see the same kinds of trouble we're seeing now. Brazil is a bubble still forming, and I'd advise you to avoid getting caught in its Venus flytrap.
The Credit Card "Da Vinci Code"
From MSN Money. A pre-computer security feature was slipped into your credit card numbers and remains there today. Pull out a card and a pencil to see the math trick for yourself.
"...the code, which can reveal whether a credit card number is fraudulent, is cryptically hidden within the sequence of the card numbers. Every legitimate credit, debit and ATM card on Earth contains this formula."
"...the code, which can reveal whether a credit card number is fraudulent, is cryptically hidden within the sequence of the card numbers. Every legitimate credit, debit and ATM card on Earth contains this formula."
How to Ride Out Dangerous Heat Waves
From HealthDay News.
"There are a number of ways to prevent overheating and protect yourself and others from heat exhaustion and heat stroke, said Dr. Larry Mellick of the emergency department at MCGHealth, an academic medical center of the Medical College of Georgia in Augusta:
"There are a number of ways to prevent overheating and protect yourself and others from heat exhaustion and heat stroke, said Dr. Larry Mellick of the emergency department at MCGHealth, an academic medical center of the Medical College of Georgia in Augusta:
* Schedule outdoor activities for early morning or early evening."
* Take regular breaks in shady areas or indoors so that your body's thermostat has a chance to recover.
* Avoid direct sunlight whenever possible. Always use sunscreen to reduce the heat your body absorbs and to limit moisture loss. Wear lightweight, light-colored, loose-fitting clothing and a wide-brimmed hat. People who work in the sun should take frequent breaks and not push themselves too hard.
* Drink plenty of fluids and don't wait until you're thirsty to drink. If you're doing heavy exercise in the heat, drink two to four glasses of cool fluids each hour. Even when you're swimming, you need to drink plenty of water.
* Don't eat a heavy or hot meal before going outside in hot weather. Doing so will heat your body faster.
* Avoid liquids that contain alcohol or large amounts of sugar -- they may cause you to lose more body fluids.
* If you're not used to exercising in hot weather, begin slowly and gradually increase your pace. If your heart starts to pound and you're gasping for breath, stop your activity, find a cool or shady area and rest.
* During hot weather, monitor the condition of family, friends and co-workers, and have someone do the same for you. During a heat wave, relatives and friends should call elderly people twice a day to ask how they're doing.
* If you have air conditioning, try to stay inside. If you don't have air conditioning, go to a public place that does have it. If you don't have air conditioning and can't leave your home, a cool shower or bath can help keep your body temperature cool.
* If you don't have air conditioning, avoid running the stove or oven on hot days.
* Call 911 immediately if you suspect that you or someone else has had a heat stroke, marked by a high body temperature, a rapid pulse, dizziness, confusion, fatigue, headache, seizure and/or hot, dry skin that is flushed but not sweaty.
Sunday, July 04, 2010
Valuing Homes With Price-to-Rent Ratios
From CNN/Time. I see Zillow's revamped their site and no longer shows price-per-square foot.
"...it takes the median purchase price of a home in a market and divides it by the annual rental payments generated on a similar property."
...
"In general, a low P/R ratio indicates home prices in an area are cheap relative to renting while a ratio above 20 indicates renting is the more affordable way to go."
...
"By digging a little deeper into the numbers homebuyers can gain even more insight. Over long periods of time, housing will follow certain valuation patterns similar to the way stocks and bonds do, says Miron. This means that no matter how far out of whack home prices get in any particular cycle, the P/R ratio will usually return to historic averages. The speed of the cycle will depend on such factors as interest rates, unemployment levels, population growth, housing supply levels, household income, foreclosures and rental rates, says Miron.
As a result, it's a good idea to look at historic averages — and how far the current ratio deviates from that level — to get the big picture on how out of whack a market may be at any particular time. In general, P/R ratios that exceed the historic average by more than 20% are markets that are poised to see significant home price declines or rental rate increases or both, says Miron."
...
"I think the ratio is a great rough and dirty way to compare the markets in terms of cost of ownership versus cost of renting," says Tara-Nicholle Nelson, an attorney, real estate broker, and consumer educator at real estate website Trulia.com. However, she noted there are many other reasons buyers might want to purchase a home even if the ratio isn't at its historic low, such as the tax advantages of owning a home or low interest rates giving them an entry point into a market that is normally out of reach.
The price-to-rent ratio data is not freely available but a major realtor will likely have access to the data for your area."
"...it takes the median purchase price of a home in a market and divides it by the annual rental payments generated on a similar property."
...
"In general, a low P/R ratio indicates home prices in an area are cheap relative to renting while a ratio above 20 indicates renting is the more affordable way to go."
...
"By digging a little deeper into the numbers homebuyers can gain even more insight. Over long periods of time, housing will follow certain valuation patterns similar to the way stocks and bonds do, says Miron. This means that no matter how far out of whack home prices get in any particular cycle, the P/R ratio will usually return to historic averages. The speed of the cycle will depend on such factors as interest rates, unemployment levels, population growth, housing supply levels, household income, foreclosures and rental rates, says Miron.
As a result, it's a good idea to look at historic averages — and how far the current ratio deviates from that level — to get the big picture on how out of whack a market may be at any particular time. In general, P/R ratios that exceed the historic average by more than 20% are markets that are poised to see significant home price declines or rental rate increases or both, says Miron."
...
"I think the ratio is a great rough and dirty way to compare the markets in terms of cost of ownership versus cost of renting," says Tara-Nicholle Nelson, an attorney, real estate broker, and consumer educator at real estate website Trulia.com. However, she noted there are many other reasons buyers might want to purchase a home even if the ratio isn't at its historic low, such as the tax advantages of owning a home or low interest rates giving them an entry point into a market that is normally out of reach.
The price-to-rent ratio data is not freely available but a major realtor will likely have access to the data for your area."
Saturday, July 03, 2010
Experts Believe Many Birth Defects Preventable
From HealthDay news. Duh! A decent diet does wonders for the genome and epigenome.
"...there's a lot that a woman can do before and during pregnancy to reduce the child's risk for developing a birth defect, doctors say. Most of these precautions are common-sense measures that apply to anyone who wants to lead a healthy life.
"Women of reproductive age should be cognizant of the fact they need to be healthy," said Dr. Michael Katz, senior vice president for research and global programs at the March of Dimes, a pediatrics professor emeritus at Columbia University and a consultant to New York-Presbyterian Hospital in New York City. "They should be living a healthy lifestyle anyway. It's not an extra chore. It's a good lifestyle."
It all starts with the grandparents, or in a species-wide view, the first bi-ped. The further away we strayed from the hunter-gatherer diet, the more diseases and defects we accumulated in our epigenome and genome. Here's how to correct the human's genome and epigenome--your family's future health could be riding on it.
"...there's a lot that a woman can do before and during pregnancy to reduce the child's risk for developing a birth defect, doctors say. Most of these precautions are common-sense measures that apply to anyone who wants to lead a healthy life.
"Women of reproductive age should be cognizant of the fact they need to be healthy," said Dr. Michael Katz, senior vice president for research and global programs at the March of Dimes, a pediatrics professor emeritus at Columbia University and a consultant to New York-Presbyterian Hospital in New York City. "They should be living a healthy lifestyle anyway. It's not an extra chore. It's a good lifestyle."
It all starts with the grandparents, or in a species-wide view, the first bi-ped. The further away we strayed from the hunter-gatherer diet, the more diseases and defects we accumulated in our epigenome and genome. Here's how to correct the human's genome and epigenome--your family's future health could be riding on it.
You May Have Heard About the "Death Cross" in TV
Well, it just signals that we're in for another dip--they say double-dip, but the media obviously missed one. This would be a third dip (the WV recovery I mentioned previously).
A number of indicators all point south in a big way--this is stuff we already knew. It's going to continue as long as Obama pursues Socialist policies and agendas (he calls it "transformation").
Once again, Wall St. is playing catch-up to reality instead of leading it.
Deflation is coming, and this means it's once again time to get out your wallets and start spending--the deals will be good and abundant. Enjoy it while it lasts.
As usual, at the end of the deflation comes an upturn--it won't be the
Great Upturn that brings us back to prosperity, but it will be a temporary upturn that will give us a little room to exhale in our portfolios, but only a little. Like the ones before it, it will be short-lived, and once again, we will flounder sideways until mid-term elections, when (hopefully) Obama will make a Clinton-like shift with a Republican congress and start making the right moves (just in time to get him re-elected).
Do NOT fall for this! Enjoy your coming respite from high prices, and don't forget to vote this jerk OUT in 2012. Then, sit back and enjoy the ride up to restoring prosperity again. Be the ant in this dip--stockpile everything reasonable NOW while it's cheap, make home improvements that will add to your bottom line on sale day, and get that debt paid off (including the mortgage) because as we recover, prices, demand, and interest rates will once again rise, and the grasshoppers will proliferate (just like before). Stockpile and make improvements so you won't have to try to navigate among the grasshoppers trying to find a deal (when the deals were during the dip), and stupidly buying at any price while living for today.
The time to sit back and watch the grasshoppers and locusts is post-dip, and it can be perversely enjoyable to see the stupid-people-with-money tricks (that got us INTO this mess) crop up once again to eventually get us into ANOTHER mess down the road. The place to spend our money will be in our emergency funds and retirement portfolios, not at the malls and stores (while we wait for the next dip to start spending again).
The "death cross" and deflation are our friends as consumers.
A number of indicators all point south in a big way--this is stuff we already knew. It's going to continue as long as Obama pursues Socialist policies and agendas (he calls it "transformation").
Once again, Wall St. is playing catch-up to reality instead of leading it.
Deflation is coming, and this means it's once again time to get out your wallets and start spending--the deals will be good and abundant. Enjoy it while it lasts.
As usual, at the end of the deflation comes an upturn--it won't be the
Great Upturn that brings us back to prosperity, but it will be a temporary upturn that will give us a little room to exhale in our portfolios, but only a little. Like the ones before it, it will be short-lived, and once again, we will flounder sideways until mid-term elections, when (hopefully) Obama will make a Clinton-like shift with a Republican congress and start making the right moves (just in time to get him re-elected).
Do NOT fall for this! Enjoy your coming respite from high prices, and don't forget to vote this jerk OUT in 2012. Then, sit back and enjoy the ride up to restoring prosperity again. Be the ant in this dip--stockpile everything reasonable NOW while it's cheap, make home improvements that will add to your bottom line on sale day, and get that debt paid off (including the mortgage) because as we recover, prices, demand, and interest rates will once again rise, and the grasshoppers will proliferate (just like before). Stockpile and make improvements so you won't have to try to navigate among the grasshoppers trying to find a deal (when the deals were during the dip), and stupidly buying at any price while living for today.
The time to sit back and watch the grasshoppers and locusts is post-dip, and it can be perversely enjoyable to see the stupid-people-with-money tricks (that got us INTO this mess) crop up once again to eventually get us into ANOTHER mess down the road. The place to spend our money will be in our emergency funds and retirement portfolios, not at the malls and stores (while we wait for the next dip to start spending again).
The "death cross" and deflation are our friends as consumers.
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